Figure 1: Nigeria Election Result 2023 – Source BBC website.
Following the Nigerian presidential election held on Saturday 25th February 2023, Peter Obi (Labour Party) and Atiku Abubakar (People’s Democratic Party) will challenge in court the result that saw Bola Tinubu of the ruling APC party declared the presidential winner with 37% of the vote.
All election challenges must be filed with the court within 21 days of the announcement of the results or they will not be considered. This deadline is 31 March. A written result from the tribunal is expected 180 days after the suit is filed.
It is highly unlikely that the tribunal will reach a decision before 29 May - when Mr Tinubu is due to be sworn in as president.
It is thought that the legal challenges will hinge on the use of electronic means to capture voting. An act that was signed last year to guide the conduct of the 2023 elections. It mandated INEC to publish guidelines for the elections.
These guidelines stated that its officials would:
· Electronically transmit or transfer the result of the Polling Unit directly to the collation system.
· Use the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) to upload a scanned copy of the EC8A (result sheet) to the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV)
Even if the tribunal ordered a rerun or declared any of his opponents the winner of the election, such an outcome is most likely to be counter-challenged at the Supreme Court.
Election Numbers
The turnout to the elections was just 27% and Mr Tinubu received 8.8 million ballots - less than 10% of the 93,469,008 registered voters. According to the figures from INEC, the total number of eligible voters rose by 9,464,924 or 11.3 per cent from the 84,004,084 recorded in the 2019 general elections to 93,469,008 eligible voters in 2023. At just 25.7 per cent, the elections have the lowest recorded turnout of any election since Nigeria returned to democracy; that’s about 3 out of 10 people who registered for the elections participated. Nigeria spent well over N300 billion naira, making it the most expensive election in Nigerian history. Voter apathy is not thought to have been as much of a factor as problems on voting day.
Figure 2: Declining Voter Turnout 2023 Election – source INEC
Figure 3: Voter Turnout 2023 Election – Businessday.ng
Possible Reasons of Voter Apathy
· Access to voting sites.
· Uncounted votes due to violence, corruption
· Lack of confidence in election process
· No voters card.
· General lack of interest.
Election Day
Some polling units did not start until 13:00, only one-and-a-half hours before polls were due to close. Despite the extension of voting, many were still unable to vote before darkness fell and poll sites closed. At some voting centres in opposition strongholds, voting did not take place at all and there were also cases of ballot-box snatching, violence and voter intimidation in known opposition states in the south.
Election monitoring group Yiaga Africa, said only 10% of polling units in the south-east and 29% in the south had started accreditation and voting by 09:30 local time on Saturday - an hour after polls opened. However, some 63% of polling units in the south-west and 42% of polling units in the north-west (known APC strongholds) had started voting at that time.
International observer missions from the NDI-IRI and the EU described the process as lacking transparency.
Conclusion
The opposition parties are expected to continue to conduct peaceful protest at INEC in parallel with legal submissions. With the Governorship elections due on Saturday 11th March, there is potential for protests to escalate into violence, especially if security forces try to restrict protest events. With the Governorship and State House of Assembly elections coming up in the next few days, further disruption and possible disorder should be anticipated.