Overview
Now the country faces a new threat from the Islamic State-affiliated insurgency in its north state Cabo Delgado. Ansar Al-Sunna known locally as Al-Shabaab (but differing from the Somali Al-Shabaab), has made not insignificant gains in the north in its alleged bid to create an Islamic State. Mozambican Defence Armed Forces (FADM) are struggling to contain the insurgency and have turned to private military companies to support them. In August 2020 Mozambican military lost the port town of Mocímboa de Praia to the insurgents and it remains contested now.
More recently in April 2021, a surprise raid by militants in Palma caught the Mozambican military unawares. The military’s unpreparedness and inability to provide adequate security have resulted in a poorly executed evacuation and the significant loss of life. Consequently, natural reserve giant Total declared force majeure and closure of its Afungi project in the region. The result? A loss of 3000 jobs and a significant impact on revenue for the government.
Uncertain Future
In a county listed as the 36th largest in the world, the capital Maputo remains largely unaffected by this threat in its northern border region of Cabo Delgado. The north is plagued by high unemployment despite the presence of multinational companies such as Total and despite massive natural gas reserves. An unemployed, disenfranchised youth, disparities between the north and south, and the presence of western companies makes the perfect ground for IS recruitment.
History has proven time and time again, that counterinsurgency cannot be won by armed conflict alone. Providing a safe space for the development and aid organizations will be critical to the overall success of any counter-insurgency plan. Subtle, but robust security measures will be required to strike a balance between allowing organizations to operate as freely as possible, whilst maintaining duty of care and a policy of “do no harm”.
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