Introduction:
This security report delves into the consequences of political instability in Kenya following the 2022 general election. The strained relationship between former President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy, President William Ruto, along with the government's policies, has had a profound impact on the safety and security situation in the country. This report highlights the key issues affecting security and provides an assessment of the risks involved.
Political Fallout and Unfulfilled Promises:
The fallout between Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto, triggered by the 2018 Handshake and subsequent alliances, has disrupted the political landscape in Kenya. The sidelining of the deputy president has created frustration among Kenyans, particularly those from lower-income backgrounds. The government's failure to address the rising cost of living and its excessive borrowing practices has deepened public discontent. Ruto capitalized on this dissatisfaction during his campaign, promising a government that would prioritize the needs of the common people. However, subsequent actions have shown a divergence between promises made and actions taken.
Economic Impact and Crime:
Crime trends taken from Kenya’s National Crime research Centre (2018) show the statistics of crimes within different regions. This is set to increase with more young and vulnerable people being recruited by criminal organisations within different areas of Kenya
The government's proposed heavy taxation measures through the Financial Bill 2023 will significantly escalate the cost of living, rendering it unaffordable for a large portion of the population. This economic strain is expected to lead to business closures and job losses, which, in turn, can contribute to an increase in crime rates. Crimes such as burglaries, robberies, and other offenses are likely to surge if the current economic situation persists.
Unemployment and Security Concerns:
The government's pledge to create a substantial number of jobs annually, particularly for the youth, appears to be unattainable. This raises concerns about a rise in unemployment rates, making the younger population vulnerable to exploitation by criminal organizations such as Al-Shabaab. The potential for increased recruitment along the Kenya-Somalia border is a significant security concern.
Challenges in Law Enforcement:
Kenyan law enforcement agencies are confronted with various challenges, including low salaries and difficulties in meeting daily needs. The heightened cost of living without a commensurate increase in income poses additional difficulties for these officers. In such circumstances, the temptation to engage in corruption becomes more pronounced, creating an opportunity for criminal groups to exploit the collaboration between law enforcement and criminal elements. This may contribute to the proliferation of small arms, counterfeit goods, and human trafficking, posing a significant threat to public safety and security.
Disruptive Opposition:
The opposition's efforts to incite public disobedience and demand a reduction in the cost of living present a further risk factor in Kenya's security landscape. While the government faces complex challenges, including a heavy burden of inherited debt, finding viable solutions to lower the cost of living is a daunting task. Frequent demonstrations and disruptions initiated by the opposition further exacerbate the economic strain and impede progress.
Conclusion:
Political instability and the government's policies have significant implications for safety and security in Kenya. The proposed increase in taxation, coupled with a stagnant economy and a disrupted business environment, may result in an unstable situation. It is imperative for the government to formulate comprehensive strategies to address these challenges and mitigate the deteriorating security conditions. Stakeholders, including residents and visitors, are advised to exercise caution, assume personal responsibility, and prioritise safety and security amidst these uncertain circumstances.